The Pasmanda Awakening: How Bengal’s verdict is rewriting Indian Muslim politics

New Delhi, May 10 (IANS) When the Election Commission of India confirmed a record-breaking final voter turnout of 92.47% across two phases, representing the highest-ever poll participation in West Bengal since Independence, surpassing the previous record of 84.72% set in 2011, this figure is not merely a statistical achievement.

It is a declaration of democratic will by a population that had been systematically suppressed, intimidated, and taken for granted at the polls for generations. In previous elections, there had been documented cases of high-rise complexes being locked up by mobs linked to the ruling party during elections, a practice observed since the Left era. The TMC had continuously opposed the setting up of booths in such complexes by the Election Commission of India. The 92.93% turnout is therefore not simply enthusiasm; it is defiance.

The granular data from Muslim-majority constituencies tells a story that demands careful, honest reading, and Muslims across India need to read it without defensiveness and without the distorting lens of partisan allegiance.

Across the 27 seats in the state assembly that the BJP won where the Muslim population exceeds 30%, the party’s average vote share jumped by 7.44 percentage points, from approximately 38.9% in 2021 to approximately 46.3% in 2026, while the TMC’s average vote share declined by 10.79 percentage points, from approximately 49% in 2021 to 38.2% in 2026. Let us walk through specific constituencies to understand the texture of this transformation.

In Jangipur, a constituency where Muslims constitute 56% of the electorate, the result was nothing short of seismic. The BJP exploded from just 22.17% to 42.90%, gaining nearly 47,000 votes, while the TMC collapsed dramatically from 68.82% to 37.94%. The Congress took a substantial 14.69% share, almost entirely drawn from Muslim voters who had previously backed the TMC.

In Beldanga, the highest-Muslim seat on the list with a 63% Muslim population, the story was one of extraordinary fragmentation. The BJP rose only modestly from 28.86% to 31.88%. But the TMC collapsed catastrophically from 55.19% to 26.10%, a stunning fall of 29 percentage points. The Aam Janata Unnayan Party took 20.43%, and the Congress took 17.48%, together accounting for nearly 38% of the total vote, clearly representing the Muslim vote that deserted the TMC and, crucially, a vote that did not migrate to the BJP.

In Kandi, a constituency with 51% Muslim population, the BJP won with 36.78% while the TMC received 31.60%, the Congress took 15.62%, and the AIMIM polled 11.52%. Together, the Congress and AIMIM accounted for nearly 27% of the total vote, clearly representing the Muslim electorate that had broken away from the TMC. In Nabagram, the BJP rose from 31.14% to 35.54%, while the TMC collapsed from 48.18% to 32.86%, with the Congress surging to 22.63%, the bulk of the Muslim vote that deserted the TMC flowing not to the BJP but to the Congress.

In the Murshidabad constituency itself, the BJP held the seat with a massive swing, surging from 41.86% to 48.18% while the TMC collapsed from 40.78% to 34.91%, with the INC, AIFB, and smaller parties dividing the remainder.

The district-level shift in Murshidabad was dramatic by any measure. The BJP won nine of Murshidabad’s 22 seats, up from just two in 2021. The TMC, which had won 20 seats in the district in 2021, was reduced to nine.

Now, a question that honest political analysis demands we address directly: did Pasmanda Muslims vote for the BJP in significant numbers? The data from the most rigorous available analysis is unambiguous. Across all 27 Muslim-majority seats that the BJP won, the final verdict of the analysis was that there was no evidence of significant direct Muslim support for the BJP. In Beldanga, the highest-Muslim seat on the list, the BJP rose only modestly, and the Muslim vote that deserted the TMC went primarily to the Congress, the AIMIM, and regional formations rather than to the BJP.

This finding, far from diminishing the significance of what I am arguing, actually deepens it. The Pasmanda Muslim’s political message in Bengal 2026 was not, or not primarily, “we choose the BJP.” It was: “we refuse to be your unconditional property.” The Muslim vote fractured across multiple formations, namely Congress, AIMIM, the Aam Janata Unnayan Party, and the Left Front, in a conscious act of democratic assertion.

In high-Muslim seats such as Baisnabnagar, Nabagram, Kandi, Beldanga, Jangipur, and Burwan, the Congress captured substantial chunks of what had previously been the TMC’s Muslim support base, directly contributing to the TMC’s collapse. The message was unmistakable: the Pasmanda Muslim community will distribute its votes according to its own calculus of interest, grievance, and aspiration, not according to the instructions of self-appointed community custodians.

The consequence of this fragmentation, in the mathematics of multi-cornered contests, was the BJP’s victory. In a three-way contest, one typically requires a minimum of 33% of the votes to secure a victory. In a fiercely contested four-way battle, one can potentially win with as little as 28-29% of the vote.

The Pasmanda Muslims, by refusing to vote as a bloc for the TMC, did not necessarily vote for the BJP, but in refusing to serve as the TMC’s captive constituency, they enabled a BJP victory. This distinction is critical, and it carries within it the most important political lesson of our time: the power of a community lies not only in whom it votes for, but in whom it withholds its vote from.

The national context for this shift has been building for years. By 2017, 12.6% of general Muslims and 8% of Pasmanda Muslims in Uttar Pradesh reported support for the BJP in state elections. By the 2022 UP state elections, BJP support among general Muslims had fallen to 9.8%, while support among Pasmanda Muslims had risen to 9.1%, a significant convergence that signals the Pasmanda community making increasingly independent political assessments.

Research from the Lokniti Network at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies suggests that appealing to the poor among Muslims has demonstrably helped the BJP in regional elections, increasing its vote share among Muslims in states such as Gujarat and Karnataka.

Surveys conducted ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections disclosed that Muslim voting behaviour was gravitating toward sub-caste identities rather than consolidating around a monolithic religious bloc, a trend with profound implications for every party that has depended on treating the Muslim electorate as a homogeneous mass.

(The writer is National Working President, All India Pasmanda Muslim Mahaz)

–IANS

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