Research confirms active tectonic fault under China’s dam project on Brahmaputra

Naypyidaw, July 27 (IANS) The revelation of an active fault beneath China’s Medog hydropower project on the Brahmaputra River should serve as a wake-up call for both Beijing and the wider international community. The key question is no longer about Beijing’s technical capacity to construct the dam, but whether it has adequately considered the geological, environmental and geopolitical risks associated with the project, a report has stated.

“For years, India has argued that China’s plan to construct the world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo (the upper course of the Brahmaputra) River was not merely an engineering challenge but a strategic and environmental gamble. Beijing consistently dismissed these concerns, maintaining that the project was scientifically planned and posed no significant downstream risks. Ironically, the strongest validation of those concerns has now come from within China itself,” a report in Myanmar’s media outlet ‘Mizzima News’ detailed.

The report cited findings from a recent study conducted by researchers from Chengdu University of Technology and the China Geological Survey, which has confirmed that the Paizhen Fault, an active tectonic fault, runs directly beneath the Medog hydropower project.

“The geological team describes the surrounding rock formations as loose, weakly bonded and vulnerable to slope failures under prolonged water immersion and continued tectonic activity. They also note that the fault has remained active since the Pleistocene epoch and continues to generate seismic activity, including the magnitude 6.9 earthquake that struck its northern edge in 2017,” it mentioned.

According to the report, concerns are not based on external speculation but from Chinese geologists associated with a Beijing-backed study. Their assessment, it said, has prompted questions over the structural resilience of the estimated USD 137 billion project, located around 50 kilometres from the Indian border.

“The Medog project has often been framed as another milestone in China’s remarkable infrastructure story. It is intended to generate more than three times the electricity of the Three Gorges Dam and support Beijing’s twin ambitions of energy security and carbon neutrality. Yet reducing the project to a renewable energy success story misses a much larger point. This is not simply a dam but an attempt to reshape one of Asia’s most strategically significant river systems through an engineering intervention of unprecedented scale,” it detailed.

China has consistently maintained that transboundary rivers fall within its sovereign jurisdiction rather than treating them as shared resources requiring joint governance. Unlike many international river basins managed through legally binding agreements, the Brahmaputra has no comprehensive water-sharing or basin management framework between China and downstream states, the ‘Mizzima News’ report noted.

It highlighted that the hydrological data sharing remained limited, largely seasonal and vulnerable to disruptions, leaving downstream countries dependent on assurances rather than institutional guarantees.

“The confirmation of an active fault beneath the project only amplifies those concerns. If Chinese researchers themselves acknowledge significant geological vulnerabilities, neighbouring countries are justified in asking what contingency planning exists should those risks materialise. To date, Beijing has offered little insight into independent safety assessments, emergency preparedness mechanisms or long-term monitoring arrangements,” the report stated.

–IANS

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